VIETNAM OUTLOOK 2H2026: PUBLIC INVESTMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION AND HOUSING

14/06/2026

Vietnam has committed VND 8.51 quadrillion to public investment for 2026 to 2030, aiming at double-digit growth. The 2026 slice is a record near VND 1.08 quadrillion. Five months in, ~VND 219 trillion was out, ~21.6% of plan, held back by spring material costs and slow site handover. Three and a half years remain against a target above 95%. In housing, both cities keep launching premium stock while most buyers shop below it, and leveraged grace-period investors have started trimming secondary asking prices.

VIETNAM PUBLIC INVESTMENT 2026: Q1 EXECUTION DELAYS CHALLENGE THE 2030 BUDGET EXPANSION

  • Public investment faced short-term execution pressure in the first five months of 2026, with disbursement reaching 21.6% of the annual plan. Main constraints included higher construction material prices, slower site clearance and investment procedure delays. However, the longer-term setup remains constructive, supported by fiscal capacity, more flexible policy tools and a larger public investment plan for 2026 to 2030.
  • Vietnam’s public debt ratio was ~35.5% of GDP at the end of 2025, while government debt stayed ~33% to 34% of GDP. Debt service obligations remained within the safety range at ~19% to 20% of total budget revenue, while government bond yields stayed stable.
  • Policy updates are gradually addressing investment procedures, site clearance and bond funding for infrastructure projects. Contractors have started using cost-risk controls such as price-adjustment clauses, risk-sharing terms, open-book models for selected projects, centralized procurement and planned material reserves.
  • Q1 2026 results for construction and building-material companies grew from a high backlog carried over from earlier years. Results in the following quarters may face pressure if Middle East conflict keeps raw material prices elevated or volatile. Large project workload should help offset material shortages and higher input prices during 2026 to 2027.
  • Investment plan comparison: average GDP growth was estimated at 6.3% in 2021 to 2025 and targeted at 10% for 2026 to 2030.
  • State budget revenue is planned to rise from VND 9.6 quadrillion in 2021 to 2025 to VND 16.4 quadrillion in 2026 to 2030. State budget expenditure is planned to rise from VND 10.9 quadrillion to VND 21.2 quadrillion. Total public investment spending is planned to rise from VND 3.4 quadrillion to VND 8.51 quadrillion, including VND 8.22 quadrillion under the medium-term public investment plan.
  • The budget deficit is planned at 5% of GDP for 2026 to 2030, compared with 3.1% to 3.2% of GDP in 2021 to 2025. Public debt to GDP is now planned at no more than 60% of GDP with a 50% warning threshold; previously 41% to 42% in 2026 to 2030, compared with 34% to 36% in 2021 to 2025.
  • Government borrowing is expected at ~VND 6.497 quadrillion for 2026 to 2030, compared with VND 2.5 quadrillion in 2021 to 2025.

MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT IMPACT: ASPHALT COST SURGES 32% THREATENING VIETNAM’S CONTRACTOR MARGINS

  • Construction material prices rose strongly from March 2026 after fuel prices increased amid geopolitical tension in the Middle East and localized supply shortages. Compared with February 2026, cement rose by more than 7%, steel by more than 2%, sand, stone and bricks by 13.5% to 23.3%, and asphalt by nearly 32%. Higher input costs increased pressure on construction costs, project schedules and investment efficiency.
  • The Ministry of Construction requested local authorities to strengthen price administration, monitor material supply, limit hoarding risk and prioritize resources for key projects. Project owners and contractors were asked to review contracts, assess cost movements and adjust implementation plans to reduce schedule pressure.

MAY 2026 STATE BUDGET DISBURSEMENT: LAND COMPENSATION DEADLOCKS SLOWING STATE CAPITAL FLOWS

  • State budget investment disbursement reached nearly VND 65 trillion in May 2026, up 17.3% year on year.
  • For the first five months of 2026, disbursement was estimated at VND 219,358.8 trillion, equal to 21.6% of the annual plan and up VND 34,816.6 trillion year on year.
  • Execution pressure came from three main areas: material shortages and higher prices affected contractor margins and slowed construction activity at selected sites; site clearance remained slower in some projects, especially where land origin and compensation plans required more coordination; investment procedures took time as projects completed legal files, designs and contractor selection.
  • Some project owners and management boards still needed stronger implementation capacity to keep construction and disbursement on schedule.
  • Disbursement quality in the next phase will depend on procedural progress, material supply stability and execution at local authority and project-owner level.

VIETNAM 2025-2030 TRANSPORT MASTER PLAN: CONCRETE NETWORK TARGETS ACROSS RAIL, ROAD AND AIR

  • General objective: build a safe, connected, efficient and sustainable transport network that supports economic and social development and improves living standards.
  • Road and expressway focus: expand the expressway network from more than 3,300 km to 5,000 km by 2030, reducing interprovincial travel time. In 2025: 170 national road routes with total length of 25,551 km, plus 3,345 km of expressways. By 2030: 174 national road routes with total length of 32,000 km, plus 5,000 km of expressways.
  • Railway focus: more than double the number of lines, with priority on modernization and cross-region connectivity. In 2025: 7 lines across 34 provinces and cities, with total length of 3,143 km. By 2030: 16 railway lines with total length above 5,500 km.
  • Airport focus: double passenger capacity while balancing the international and domestic airport network. In 2025: 22 airports, including 9 international airports and 13 domestic airports, with capacity of 150 million passengers per year. By 2030: 28 airports, including 14 international airports and 14 domestic airports, with capacity of 300 million passengers per year.
  • Waterway and seaport focus: increase cargo throughput to support import and export activity. In 2025: seaport throughput of 864.4 million tons per year, 20 inland waterway routes and total inland waterway tonnage of 23.5 million tons. By 2030: seaport throughput target of 1.140 billion to 1.423 billion tons, with investment to upgrade 19 inland waterway routes.
  • Metro focus: expand urban rail capacity and build a stronger backbone for modern city transport. In 2025: 3 lines with total length above 40 km. By 2030: more than 14 lines with total length above 330 km.

2026 TRANSPORT PROGRESS: TRACKING LONG THANH AIRPORT, HO CHI MINH CITY AND HANOI RING ROADS  

The date that counts is commercial operation, targeted for late 2026; a technical flight already landed in December 2025, so the terminal is in its final stretch. Direct roads T1 and T2 are nearly ready. Full relief waits for the HCMC to Long Thanh to Dau Giay widening in 2027, so early traffic leans on existing roads. For nearby land, the operation date turns expectation into traffic; the road benefit possibly lands a year later.

  • Among key projects under construction, Ring Road 3 and Ring Road 4 were behind expectation due to material shortages and higher construction costs.
  • Hanoi Ring Road 4, segment from Km13+017.92 to Km36+166.74: length 23.1 km, contract value VND 1,818 billion, progress 85%, expected completion June 2026.
  • Hanoi Ring Road 4, segment from Km48+314.71 to Km58+200: length 9.9 km, contract value VND 890 billion, progress 80%, expected completion June 2026.
  • Hanoi Ring Road 4, parallel urban road in Hung Yen: length 19.3 km, contract value VND 1,505 billion, progress 80%, expected completion September 2026.
  • HCMC Ring Road 3, XL4 package in Thu Duc: length 3.0 km, contract value VND 1,642 billion, progress 85%, expected completion November 2026.
  • HCMC Ring Road 3, XL5 package in Thu Duc: length 2.4 km, contract value VND 2,303 billion, progress 85%, expected completion December 2026.
  • HCMC Ring Road 3, XL8 package in Hoc Mon: length 7.3 km, contract value VND 1,418 billion, progress 84%, expected completion July 2026.
  • HCMC Ring Road 3, XL10 package in Binh Chanh: length 3.1 km, contract value VND 1,638 billion, progress 78%, expected completion December 2026.
  • HCMC Ring Road 3, XL1 package in Binh Duong: length 2.4 km, contract value VND 1,832 billion, progress 70%, expected completion February 2027.
  • Long Thanh International Airport passenger terminal: contract value VND 35,234 billion, progress 97%, expected completion in 2026: runway, apron and ancillary works with construction and design scope 95%; apron equipment and related works 96%; T1 and T2 connecting roads 99%; internal traffic infrastructure and airside infrastructure construction, installation and design 97%.

NEW VIETNAM TRANSPORT CORRIDORS: BENEFITTED RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS AND INDUSTRIAL PARKS

Infrastructure lifts land by cutting travel time. Most names cluster around estates and industrial parks beside the new routes. Confirm distance to funded, dated infrastructure before reading uplift into an address.

  • North-South Expressway Phase 2: Ward IV commercial residential area in Hau Giang, Vinhomes Vung Ang Industrial Park, Doc Da Trang Industrial Park.
  • Long Thanh Airport: Gem Sky World, Loc An to Binh Son Industrial Park and Long Duc Industrial Park Phase 2.
  • HCMC Ring Road 3: Vinhomes Sai Gon Park, Vinhomes Green City, Vinhomes Grand Park, Nam Long Waterpoint, Le Minh Xuan Expanded Industrial Park, Tan Tao Urban Area, The Gio, La Pura, Monrei Sai Gon, Le Minh Xuan 3 Industrial Park, Dong Nam Industrial Park, Huu Thanh Industrial Park.
  • Hanoi Ring Road 4: Vinhomes Wonder City, Vinhomes Ocean Park 1, 2 and 3, Vinhomes Smart City, Thuan Thanh 1 Industrial Park, Nam Son Hap Linh Industrial Park, Que Vo Industrial Park.
  • HCMC metro lines: La Pura, Monrei Sai Gon, Vinhomes Green Paradise, Vinhomes Sai Gon Park, Vinhomes Grand Park, The Gio, Binh Duong New City and industrial parks in Binh Duong.
  • Hanoi metro lines: Vinhomes Wonder City, Vinhomes Smart City, Vinhomes Global Gate Ha Long.

HO CHI MINH CITY REAL ESTATE 2026: PREMIUM SUPPLY SATURATION OVERLOOKS MODERATE BUDGET DEMAND

About 90% of new launches are high-end, while most demand is moderate budget. The gap closes as mid-range and social supply deliver and premium terms ease. Land cost and approval economics favor high-end, so the fix rests on affordable supply arriving on time. 

  • According to the HCMC People’s Committee, state budget revenue reached more than VND 325.73 trillion in the first four months of 2026 and increased by ~18% year over year. Land and property revenue reached VND 21.42 trillion, also higher than the same period last year. Land-use fee revenue reached ~VND 14.94 trillion, up ~88%. Revenue from property transfers reached VND 4.83 trillion, up more than 5%.
  • For 2026, HCMC targets state budget revenue of ~VND 1,000 trillion. Revenue from land sources is expected to exceed VND 100 trillion.
  • Through May 2026, HCMC recorded 20 commercial housing projects eligible to raise capital from homes sold before completion, providing ~16,328 homes and more than 1.63 million sqm of floor area. High-end products account for 14,637 homes, or ~90% of new supply. Mid-range products account for 1,691 homes. The low-cost segment recorded zero new projects.
  • HCMC currently has 96 housing projects in progress, with more than 95,400 homes. The active project pipeline includes ~87,200 apartments and more than 8,100 low-rise homes. 14 social housing projects are under construction, with total scale of ~11,600 units.
  • The Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) reported a similar pattern in major urban markets. In Hanoi and HCMC, ~85% of apartment supply launched since last year has been high-end housing priced above VND 80 million/m2. Market demand still comes mainly from owner-occupiers with moderate budgets.

HO CHI MINH CITY’S CROSS-BORDER PROPERTY ASSETS: 140 APPROVED PROJECTS AMID POST-MERGER BOUNDARY EXPANSION

  • HCMC has now announced more than 140 commercial housing projects eligible for foreign ownership. The expansion of the eligible project list follows HCMC’s wider development space after its merger with Binh Duong and Ba Ria – Vung Tau, giving the city larger land reserves and new satellite urban areas close to industrial parks and inter-regional transport routes, where demand comes from workers, specialists, and foreign staff.
  • In the former Binh Duong province, the list includes The Charms Binh Duong, ~1.3 ha in former Thu Dau Mot; Dat Thanh commercial housing area, ~9.3 ha in Bau Bang; and A&T Saigon River apartments, ~0.73 ha in Thuan An.
  • Additional projects in the same area include Phu Hung apartment complex, ~2 ha in Dinh Hoa, and Star View, a mixed apartment, commercial, and service project of ~1.28 ha in former Vinh Phu, Thuan An, now Binh Hoa ward.
  • In the former core of HCMC, the list adds three projects: a 4.28 ha housing project in Thanh My Loi, now Cat Lai; a 9 ha phase 1 housing project in Long Truong, former Thu Duc City; and the 0.9 ha New Tech project in Phu Thuan, former District 7.
  • HCMC had previously announced eight eligible projects, including the 36.2 ha An Dien ecological housing area by Eco Pearl City Group; the 4.31 ha Tan Quy housing and commercial services complex by Thien Ha – Bang Duong; the 2.36 ha Vista high-end apartment project; and the 0.80 ha Sensation mixed apartment and service project by CapitaLand in An Khanh ward.
  • Others include the 1.98 ha apartment tower in Hiep Phuoc by Giao Huong Xanh; the 1.2 ha Green Square urban, commercial, and service project by Thai Binh Investment in Di An ward; A&K Tower by OBC Thuan An on nearly 9,400 m2 in An Phu ward; and the 8,500 m2 An Phu apartment project by An Phu Land.
  • Foreign ownership remains capped by law at 30% of apartments in one condominium building, or 250 landed houses in one ward-level administrative unit, and subject to national defense and security location requirements. Foreign-invested companies must use valid investment registration or legal documents when participating in transactions.

HO CHI MINH CITY’S THU THIEM STATION: INFRASTRUCTURE SPECULATION COMMANDS 40% PRICING PREMIUM OVER THE CITY AVERAGE

  • Thu Thiem Station is planned to become a national transport hub and an endpoint of the North to South high speed railway, with connections expected to Vietnam’s largest international airport.
  • 45 projects are reported to have either been handed over or are in progress within two kilometers of Thu Thiem Station. Apartment projects make up most of the supply near the station, with total stock of ~33,000 units. Low rise housing appears in limited quantity within this radius such as Palm Residence and Lancaster Eden.
  • Among completed projects, Binh Khanh Apartment Building and The Sun Avenue are the closest to the planned station location. The Metropolis by SonKim Land, which is under development, is also within 500 meters of the station.
  • Older condominium projects, including Homyland, R6 R7 Duc Khai, Chung cu Binh Khanh and An Loc An Phuc, are quoted ~VND 50 million to VND 60 million/m2. Most other projects are quoted from above VND 80 million/m2 to ~VND 200 million/m2.
  • The average apartment price near the station is ~VND 100 million/m2, which is ~40% above the wider HCMC apartment average. Examples include both off-plan and completed projects from Palm Residence, Masteri Lumiere Riverside, Eaton Park, Define, Estella Heights and Masteri Thao Dien. The pricing pattern reflects a mix of older apartment stock, newer apartment schemes and a small number of low rise projects near key roads and urban nodes.
  • Several land banks or announced projects around the station area are still awaiting further implementation steps. Examples include Rome Diamond Lotus, Regency Park, Water Bay Novaland, Laimian City, Binh Khanh Resettlement Area, The Palace Residence, and Binh An Pearl.
  • As land supply in central Thu Thiem becomes tighter, project transfers and stake purchases may receive more attention from market participants. The wider Thu Thiem and Long Thanh corridor adds more land lot and low rise projects including King Bay, Swan Park, Terra Flora, Mega City 2, Long Hoi Central Point, Spring Ville, KDC An Thuan, Blue Topaz, Tien Loc Garden, and Thang Long Home.
  • Each asset requires strict due diligence on scale, procedural progress, construction status, commercial pricing, approved planning, ownership records, transactional inventory, and distance to confirmed transport infrastructure. 

HANOI HIGH-RISE BOOM 2026-2028: LUXURY PIPELINES CAPITALIZE ON FORMER INDUSTRIAL SITES

  • Hanoi apartment supply is entering a new growth phase, with major housing companies launching or preparing large projects across the western, southern, and northern parts of the capital. From 2026 to 2028, newly launched and legally completed high-rise complexes are expected to add tens of thousands of apartments to the Hanoi market.
  • Masterise Homes, MIK Group, and Sunshine Group are among the largest supply sources now active in the commercial apartment segment.
  • On Nguyen Trai Street, the former Cao Xa La (nhà máy cao su – xà phòng – thuốc lá) industrial site is being converted into Hanoi Seasons Garden, a project developed by Masterise Homes on ~11 ha, with eight apartment towers and two office towers of 35 to 46 floors. Based on Hanoi’s approval for 3,944 units to be sold to foreign buyers and the 30% ownership cap, the project could contain ~13,000 apartments. 
  • In the west, Masterise Homes is present in Vinhomes Dan Phuong through Masteri Sky Quarter, which has two towers of 16 and 22 floors. In the east, after its projects in Vinhomes Global Gate Co Loa, Masterise Homes plans to develop 34 apartment towers inside Vinhomes Ocean Park 2 and 3. Masterise projects are mostly priced above VND 100 million per m2, while Hanoi Seasons Garden in central Hanoi has reached more than VND 200 million/m2. 
  • MIK Group has announced apartment projects steadily over the past three years and focused on western Hanoi. In Nam An Khanh, MIK Group is introducing Imperia Sky Park on nearly 4 ha, with six towers of 31 to 40 floors and ~3,000 units ranging from studios to duplexes and penthouses. In Long Bien, MIK Group is developing The Magnolia, a three-tower complex of 33 floors with more than 500 upscale apartments. This follows Imperia Signature Co Loa in Vinhomes Global Gate and Imperia Ocean City in Vinhomes Ocean Park 2.
  • Sunshine Group is expanding its Hanoi apartment portfolio through Noble West Lake Hanoi, Sunshine River Park and Sunshine Continental. Noble West Lake Hanoi, located in Ciputra in Phu Thuong ward, covers almost 6 ha and has 12 towers of 40 floors near Vo Chi Cong Street and opposite Lotte Mall West Lake. Sunshine River Park in Phu Thuong ward has 25 above-ground floors, three basement levels, and ~134,000 m2 of gross floor area. Sunshine Continental in Tu Liem ward has 30 above-ground floors and three basement levels.
  • Other companies are also active in Hanoi’s apartment market: MIC is developing a 42-floor tower with more than 600 high-end apartments offered above VND 100 million/m2 and low-rise townhouses on To Huu Street. Tan A Dai Thanh is developing Meyhomes Galleria Hoang Mai on Vinh Hung Street, expected to provide ~1,095 apartments. Its Galia Hanoi project in Yen So is expected to add nearly 800 apartments.
  • Geleximco has An Binh Homeland in the Geleximco – Le Trong Tan urban area, with ~1,200 apartments. WTO returns with The Flame Vine in Hinode Royal Park. Lideco returns with the 32-floor NO-11 project in Dich Vong, offering 364 apartments.
  • High-end apartments account for most of the announced supply.

HANOI SECONDARY APARTMENT ADJUSTMENTS: ENDING GRACE PERIODS FORCE OUT QUICK FLIPPING AND FOMO PREMIUMS

Primary holds or rises, secondary softens where owners need liquidity. The pressured sellers are a known set, hot-phase buyers on grace-period loans now hitting full repayment as rates sit higher. Cuts run from a few hundred million to above one billion on specific units, while flipping has thinned and owner-occupiers dominate. It stays in the leveraged pocket for now; the rate path and loan rollovers decide how far it spreads.

  • Hanoi’s apartment market is splitting into two tracks: primary prices continue to rise, while many secondary units are being discounted to improve liquidity. Short-term resale strategies are losing ground to owner-occupier demand and long-term asset holding.
  • According to May 2026 data from Batdongsan.com.vn, only ~4% of apartment buyers are purchasing for short-term resale, down from 30% to 40% during the earlier active period. About 67% of transactions serve owner-occupancy, while nearly 30% are for rental purposes.
  • After a long price increase cycle, the secondary apartment market in Hanoi is showing broader adjustment. Depending on project and unit size, common reductions range from several hundred million VND to more than VND 1 billion (~USD 38,000) per apartment compared with prior peak levels, reflecting greater selling pressure in the secondary market.
  • At Golden Silk on Nghiem Xuan Yem Street in Dinh Cong, a 56 m2 unit is listed at ~VND 3.8 billion (~USD 145,000), equal to VND 68.57 million/m2. That is ~VND 550 million (~USD 21,000) below the project’s March 2026 peak of VND 77.8 million/m2 and ~VND 465 million below the April 2026 common price of VND 76.2 million/m2.
  • At Eco Green Nguyen Xien in Thanh Liet, an apartment of nearly 200 m2 is listed at ~VND 15.5 billion (~USD 590,000), equal to VND 77.97 million/m2. That is ~VND 1.4 billion (~USD 53,800) below the April 2026 common price of VND 85 million/m2. The April level was already 3.6% below the December 2025 peak of VND 88.2 million/m2 and up ~28% over one year.
  • For Lucky House Kien Hung, the common price is ~VND 63.3 million/m2. The price level has fallen 15.1% from its peak of VND 74.6 million/m2 in the Q4 2025.
  • At The Zen Residence at Gamuda Gardens in Linh Nam, a 106 m2 apartment is listed at ~VND 10.3 billion (~USD 392,000), equal to more than VND 97 million/m2. That is ~VND 420 million (~USD 16,000) below the April 2026 common price of VND 101.1 million/m2. The April level was 5.2% below the February 2026 peak of VND 106.7 million/m2 and up around 27.5% over one year.
  • FLC Complex 36 Pham Hung is now commonly priced ~VND 97.9 million/m2, down ~5% from December 2025.
  • Florence My Dinh on Tran Huu Duc Street in Tu Liem is commonly priced ~VND 99.2 million/m2, down 2.8% from March 2026 and still ~35% above the same period last year.
  • Masteri West Heights in Tay Mo, Nam Tu Liem District is commonly priced ~VND 103.2 million/m2, down 3.3% from March 2026 and up almost 25% over one year.
  • The Vesta Ha Dong has an average price of ~VND 65.2 million/m2, down 4.1% from the end of 2025.
  • Xuan Mai Complex on To Huu Street in Yen Nghia is commonly priced ~VND 65.9 million/m2, down 8.1% from the January 2026 peak and up 21.8% from the same period last year.
  • Mipec Rubik 360 on Xuan Thuy Street in Cau Giay is commonly priced ~VND 127.6 million/m2, down 2.1% from the February 2026 peak of VND 130.4 million/m2. A 110 m2 unit is listed at ~VND 13.2 billion (~USD 502,000), equal to VND 120 million/m2. Prices remain ~35.6% higher than the same period last year.
  • Imperia Smart City on Thang Long Avenue in Tay Mo is commonly priced ~VND 90.9 million/m2, down 5.5% from the February 2026 peak and up nearly 28% over one year. A 55 m2 unit is listed at ~VND 4.4 billion (~USD 168,000), equal to ~VND 80 million/m2.
  • The Sapphire at Vinhomes Smart City is commonly priced ~VND 85.1 million/m2, slightly below its February 2026 peak and up ~26.6% over one year.
  • Discounted resale listings are reported to have appeared since early 2026. Many of those are mainly linked to investors who bought during the fast price growth phase and used high leverage, especially loans with principal grace periods. As grace periods end and interest costs rise, some investors are selling to restructure cash flow.
  • Some buyers who entered during the earlier buying rush and paid price premiums are also reducing expectations after short-term resale plans failed to deliver the expected outcome. More resale listings and more cautious buyers have slowed liquidity in the secondary market.
  • These adjustments are expected to remain concentrated in certain investor groups and segments, rather than spreading across the whole market. Financial leverage and the interest-rate cycle will continue to shape selling decisions.
  • In the coming period, loans moving into full principal and interest repayment may increase cash flow pressure, especially for investors with heavy borrowing. Rising apartment supply may increase price competition, especially for future-delivery units.

This article (including any report, appendices, exhibits and verbal commentary) is provided for general informational and discussion purposes only. Nothing herein should be assumed to be profitable, inevitable, or “priced in.” It is not legal, tax or investment advice. Direct acquisition, foreign ownership and project-level eligibility require professional review. Any forward looking statements, including projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, scenarios and opinions, reflect judgment as of the date hereof and are inherently uncertain. Certain information has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable. Views expressed are those of Arcadia Consulting Vietnam as of the date of this material and may differ from the views of other parties.