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THAILAND Q4 2025 HOUSING MARKET BY REIC

Signs of a market moving past the trough toward stabilization with structural rebalancing under way from Real Estate Information Center (REIC)’s press release, Government Housing Bank (GHB), distributed on 25/02/2026.

MARKET POSITION

• REIC reported that Thailand’s housing market in Q4 2025 showed a clearer quarter-on-quarter recovery, extending the improvement seen over the previous two quarters.
• The improvement was supported by short-term economic stimulus under the government’s Quick Big Win program, together with property sector measures, notably lower transfer and mortgage registration fees and the temporary easing of loan-to-value (LTV) rules.
• Those measures helped bring forward purchase decisions for actual occupation and lifted nationwide housing title transfers from the third quarter, in both unit volume and transfer value.
• In REIC’s assessment, the market has moved beyond its low point. Even so, 2026 is expected to remain broadly in line with 2025 and to mark a period of structural rebalancing across demand, supply and housing credit conditions.

NATIONWIDE TRANSFER ACTIVITY IN Q4 2025

• Nationwide housing title transfers totaled 89,198 units, up 5.7% quarter on quarter from 84,397 units in Q3 2025.
• Transfer value rose to THB 247.145 billion, up 9.3% quarter on quarter from THB 226.166 billion.
• Low-rise housing recorded 60,086 transferred units, up 4.4% quarter on quarter, with transfer value of THB 174.469 billion, up 6.3%.
• Condominium transfers reached 29,112 units, up 8.6% quarter on quarter, with transfer value of THB 72.677 billion, up 17.0%.

MARKET STRUCTURE: NEWLY BUILT HOMES AND RESALE HOMES

• The market mix continued to shift in a meaningful way toward resale stock.
• Newly built homes recorded 33,606 transfers in Q4 2025, equivalent to 38% of all nationwide transfers, down from 39% a year earlier.
• Resale homes recorded 55,592 transfers, equivalent to 62% of all transfers, up from 61% a year earlier. 
• Resale homes therefore took a larger share by volume, although their aggregate transfer value remained below that of newly built homes.

FULL YEAR 2025 PERFORMANCE

• For full year 2025, nationwide housing title transfers totaled 316,214 units, down 9.1% from 347,799 units in 2024.
• Total transfer value came to THB 864.913 billion, down 11.8% from THB 980.648 billion in 2024.
• Newly built homes recorded 112,565 transferred units for the year, down 13.9%, with transfer value of THB 452.565 billion, down 14.7%.
• Resale homes recorded 203,649 transferred units, down 6.2%, with transfer value of THB 412.348 billion, down 8.4%.

GEOGRAPHIC CONCENTRATION AND PROVINCIAL TRENDS

• The ten provinces with the highest transfer value in Q4 2025 were Bangkok, Chonburi, Samut Prakan, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Phuket, Chiang Mai, Rayong, Khon Kaen and Nakhon Ratchasima.
• Within that group, Khon Kaen and Rayong recorded year-on-year growth in both transfer volume and transfer value in Q4 2025.
• For full-year 2025, the ten provinces with the highest transfer value were Bangkok, Chonburi, Samut Prakan, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Phuket, Chiang Mai, Rayong, Nakhon Ratchasima and Khon Kaen.
• Among those provinces, Phuket, Rayong, and Nakhon Ratchasima recorded year-on-year growth in both transfer volume and transfer value for the year.
• Khon Kaen recorded higher transfer volume but lower transfer value, indicating a tilt toward lower priced transactions.

FOREIGN DEMAND IN CONDOMINIUM UNITS

• Q4 2025 also showed a positive signal in foreign demand for condominium units.
• Condominium title transfers to foreign buyers totaled 3,888 units, up 1.1% quarter on quarter and 9.3% year on year.
• Transfer value rose only marginally year on year, while unit volume increased more quickly, suggesting a lower average value per unit, particularly in the mid-market segment.
• For full year 2025, foreign buyers acquired 14,899 condominium units, up 2.2% year on year, while transfer value fell 10.7% to THB 60.921 billion.
• Foreign buyers accounted for 14.7% of all condominium units transferred nationwide and 25.0% of total condominium transfer value.
• Chinese buyers remained the largest foreign buyer group. In 2025, they acquired 4,940 condominium units, down 12.9% year on year, with transfer value of THB 18.585 billion, down 30.0%.
• Even with that decline, Chinese buyers still represented the largest share of foreign condominium demand, at 33% of units and 31% of value.
• Russia and Taiwan recorded notable growth in both units and value, indicating that foreign demand is becoming more diversified across buyer nationalities.
• REIC also notes a broader buyer mix, including owner-occupiers, long-stay residents, and buy-to-let investors, which should support greater flexibility and resilience in the condominium market.

 HOUSING CREDIT CONDITIONS

• Housing credit data also reflected a modest improvement in demand.
• New housing loans to individual borrowers nationwide totaled THB 148.748 billion in Q4 2025, up 1.3% quarter on quarter from THB 146.834 billion in Q3 2025.
• For full-year 2025, new housing loans to individual borrowers totaled THB 539.065 billion, down 7.8% year on year from THB 584.843 billion.
• REIC noted that the annual decline in new lending continues to reflect prudent underwriting by financial institutions and the constraint imposed by elevated household debt.

2026 MARKET OUTLOOK

• REIC views Thailand’s economy in 2026 as fragile, but with opportunities still present.
• GDP growth in 2026 is projected in a range of 1.5% to 2.5%, with a midpoint estimate of 2.0%.
• Household debt is expected to remain high and will continue to weigh on purchasing power.
• At the same time, short-term measures to relieve household debt burdens, including programmes such as “Close Debt Fast, Move Forward” and “You Fight, We Help”, should help ease financial pressure on households.
• Interest rates are expected to trend downward, while tourist arrivals and tourism receipts are expected to improve.
• With the government now in place, REIC expects continued policy action and further economic stimulus, which should support exports, industrial production, and private consumption.
• Under REIC’s base-case scenario, nationwide housing title transfers in 2026 are projected at 314,593 units, down 0.5% from 2025.
• Transfer value in 2026 is projected at approximately THB 858.453 billion, down 0.7% from 2025.
• New housing loans to individual borrowers are projected at approximately THB 539.062 billion, effectively unchanged from the THB 539.065 billion recorded in 2025.

CLOSING ASSESSMENT

• In summary, 2025 was a year of contraction for Thailand’s housing market in both transfer volume and transfer value.
• The improvement seen in the final quarter was real and was supported by the Quick Big Win measures, lower transfer and mortgage registration fees, and the easing of LTV rules.
• Even so, the recovery remains limited rather than broad-based.
• For 2026, REIC frames the market less as entering a full rebound than as undergoing structural rebalancing across demand, supply and domestic housing credit conditions.
• On REIC’s assessment, that adjustment should place the property sector on a healthier footing and support a firmer contribution to the wider Thai economy.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS 

Where is demand still showing up while the broader market stays flat?

Resale homes are taking a larger share of market activity by volume. In Q4 2025, second-hand homes made up 62% of transfers, and for full-year 2025 their share reached 64%. In condos, transfers to foreign buyers rose 9.3% year on year in Q4. China remained the largest foreign buyer group overall, while Russia and Taiwan recorded notable growth in 2025, showing that foreign demand is becoming more diversified.

Why does REIC’s flat 2026 outlook matter after the 2025 decline?

REIC expects the housing market in 2026 to remain broadly stable after the 2025 decline. Its base case forecasts a 0.5% drop in transfers and a 0.7% drop in transfer value, with new housing loans staying close to 2025 levels. The report points to debt relief measures, lower interest rates, tourism recovery, and continued stimulus as support factors, but it also stresses that the economy remains fragile and household debt is still high. REIC frames 2026 as a year of structural rebalancing rather than a full rebound.