{"id":5411,"date":"2024-01-02T23:40:31","date_gmt":"2024-01-02T16:40:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/?p=5411"},"modified":"2024-02-27T16:24:59","modified_gmt":"2024-02-27T09:24:59","slug":"what-is-in-store-for-the-worlds-luxury-real-estate-hubs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/what-is-in-store-for-the-worlds-luxury-real-estate-hubs\/","title":{"rendered":"WHAT IS IN STORE FOR THE WORLD’S LUXURY REAL ESTATE HUBS"},"content":{"rendered":"
Myriad uncertainties, from mortgage rates to national elections and the stock market, will have more impact than in typical years in major metropolitan housing markets from San Francisco to Sydney in 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
\n
\"Arcadia
Despite a year and half of almost continuous interest rate rises, Sydney\u2019s dwelling values actually increased 10.2% in the 12 months to Dec, 1<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
In London, \u201cthe biggest risks to the prime market are likely to be political rather than economic,\u201d said Tom Bill, head of U.K. residential research at Knight Frank. \u201cIf the election occurs in the latter half of 2024, then we may see an uptick in prime sales. Prime buyers are less reliant on mortgages, but they are influenced by uncertainty.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
That seems to be the running trend across major luxury hubs, where government policy and geopolitical events will drive high-end home-buying trends, according to real estate professionals who spoke to Mansion Global about what may be in the cards for 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
For instance, a similar story may play out across the Atlantic in New York, where declining mortgage rates are expected to \u201cinspire more buyers and more sellers\u201d to get into the market, said Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens. But \u201cwe also know that \u201924 is going to be an election year. That creates a bit of uncertainty\u2014people want to wait and see what\u2019s going to happen.\u201d<\/span><\/div>\n
In the startup hub of San Francisco, Joel Goodrich, director of the estates division of Coldwell Banker Global Luxury, is \u201cneutral to bullish\u201d in his outlook for the city in 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
\u201cThe Bay Area remains the tech and AI capital of the world, with the vast majority of top AI companies in the world located right here,\u201d Goodrich said. \u201cI believe this could lead to another big boom in the second part of the decade. The question is, how soon will it start?\u201d<\/span><\/div>\n

NEW YORK CITY\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"Arcadia<\/span><\/p>\n

Interest rates and elections are likely to be two of the major factors impacting New York City\u2019s real estate market next year, according to Freedman.<\/span><\/div>\n
U.S. mortgage rates were on a tear in 2023, peaking in October when the typical 30-year rate reached close to 8%, a two-decade high. \u201cNext year we\u2019ll probably see a cut in rates,\u201d she said. \u201cAnd if we get that, it\u2019ll inspire more buyers and more sellers\u2014that would be a positive\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
At the very top end, \u201ceven in more challenging times, we see very large sales happen, but we see less of them. People are just a bit more risk-averse,\u201d according to Freedman. \u201cI would say \u201924 is going to continue to be a bit austere\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
Ultimately, \u201cI think next year is going to be sort of a reset of a year,\u201d Freedman said.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
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SAN FRANCISCO<\/span><\/h2>\n
\"Arcadia
The bright spot in San Francisco is single-family homes in the historic residential neighborhoods in the $2 million to $5 million range, which has always been more immune to downturns<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
If anything, San Francisco is coming off a reset year. In 2023, San Francisco served as the poster child for many of America\u2019s woes, including crime, homelessness and a slowing housing market. The condo market in particular logged a 40% decrease in sales compared to 2022.<\/span><\/div>\n
Still, Goodrich, of Coldwell Banker Global Luxury, remains fairly optimistic in his outlook for next year, in part because the NASDAQ is doing extremely well, and San Francisco\u2019s luxury market is somewhat correlated to it. Though he Goodrich acknowledges there are plenty of economic and geopolitical crosscurrents that could affect that scenario either way.<\/span><\/div>\n
\u201cThe bright spot in San Francisco is single-family homes in the historic residential neighborhoods in the $2 million to $5 million range, which has always been more immune to downturns,\u201d Goodrich said. \u201cWe are seeing much less inventory and stronger sales in that submarket than other segments in the market”.<\/span><\/div>\n
Goodrich thinks neighborhoods such as South Beach\/SoMa, Mission Bay and Dogpatch could have a strong rebound if more employees return to offices.<\/span><\/div>\n
\u201cI\u2019m actually bullish on the return to office,\u201d he said. \u201cA lot of my tech CEO clients as well as 20-something founders want their teams in the office every day, as that is the most efficient and creative way to work in a lot of situations. This boosts the value of cities and high-rises.\u201d<\/span><\/div>\n
Two new developments, Maison Pacific and the Belvedere, are anticipated this year in the historic areas of Russian Hill and Pacific Heights.<\/span><\/div>\n
\u201cThere are definitely plans in the works with several major new residential high-rise proposals, so there could potentially be another construction boom in the second part of the decade,\u201d Goodrich said.<\/span><\/div>\n

MIAMI<\/span><\/h2>\n
\"Arcadia
Property prices in this market are on an upward trajectory overall and it\u2019s why Miami has continued to outperform the rest of the country<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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In contrast to subdued activity in San Francisco, \u201cMiami is just on fire,\u201d according to Ivan Chorney of the Ivan and Mike Team at Compass.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
And it\u2019s true: Miami has been a standout city in the U.S., with prices rising roughly 1% annually, according to Knight Frank\u2019s third-quarter prime cities report\u2014making it the only U.S. city in the quarterly index to see luxury home prices rise year over year.<\/span><\/div>\n
Demand remains strong, and many buyers are looking to buy off plans to get just the right unit. \u201cIf it wasn\u2019t for pre-construction, we\u2019d have very little to sell,\u201d Chorney said. <\/span><\/div>\n
Meanwhile, those in the market for a waterfront mansion can still expect to pay top dollar next year, according to Filippo Incorvaia, CEO of FI Real Estate. \u201cDue to the scarcity in the market, when it comes to single-family residences, prices will stay unchanged,\u201d he said. In 2024, they will \u201cstart slowly increasing as we see more buyers joining the race. New development pricing will keep setting records.\u201d <\/span><\/div>\n
Though the market has normalized from the white-hot peak of 2021-22, with sellers adjusting their asks and buyers accepting the new normal of higher interest rates, Miami is still a strong bet. \u201cProperty prices in this market are on an upward trajectory overall and it\u2019s why Miami has continued to outperform the rest of the country,\u201d Incorvaia said. <\/span><\/div>\n

LOS ANGELES<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"Arcadia<\/span><\/p>\n

The Los Angeles housing market is also ready for a reset in 2024 after a bumpy year. Prices were down nearly 2% year over year in the third quarter, but started to rebound in the second half of the year\u2014up 6.7% in the six months ending in September\u2014as interest rates started to fall, according to Knight Frank data. <\/span><\/div>\n
David Kramer, president of Hilton & Hyland\/Luxury Portfolio International, said he and his colleagues saw increased activity toward the end of the year. \u201cThere have been some strong sales over the last few months, especially in the upper end.\u201d Some buyers have also indicated that they want to buy \u201cbefore the market starts the upward turn,\u201d Kramer said. <\/span><\/div>\n
Falling interest rates are likely to jumpstart both buyers and sellers currently locked into low rates they don\u2019t want to lose. Kramer doesn\u2019t see 2024 as a year for big price growth, although there is \u201cpotential for some slight increases.\u201d <\/span><\/div>\n
As ever, Los Angeles buyers are attracted to hot new projects or amenities. \u201cCreative developers are coming up with new life-enhancement amenities, which will cause more people to sell their older homes and start to look for something newer,\u201d Kramer said. <\/span><\/div>\n

LONDON<\/span><\/h2>\n
\"Arcadia
Looking beyond 2024, “the prime market did not experience large price increases during the pandemic years, like other parts of the market, so there is potential for steady growth in the coming years,\u201d Bill said<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
2023 turned out fairly subdued for London\u2019s luxury market, but it\u2019s ending on a better note as the U.K. narrowly avoided going into recession.<\/span><\/div>\n
With inflation slowing and mortgage rates dropping slightly, the prime market has recorded improved activity levels, but prices are unlikely to rise next year, experts say. 2024 could be another subdued period, one that just ticks along, said Tom Bill, head of U.K. residential research at Knight Frank. Knight Frank has predicted 0% movement in price for the prime central London market next year.<\/span><\/div>\n
There\u2019s also a U.K. general election due to happen in 2024, and some say it might be earlier than expected, which could cause a pause in the market.<\/span><\/div>\n
\u201cThe biggest risks to the prime market are likely to be political rather than economic. If the election occurs in the latter half of 2024, then we may see an uptick in prime sales. Prime buyers are less reliant on mortgages, but they are influenced by uncertainty,\u201d Bill said.<\/span><\/div>\n
A change of government represents a higher risk for prime markets in particular, but higher rates of tax around property and wealth has been the global direction of travel for more than a decade, according to Knight Frank\u2019s U.K. house price forecasts for October 2023. <\/span><\/div>\n
Bill pointed to proposed changes to the U.K.\u2019s favorable taxes for non-domiciled residents, and the proposed removal of tax breaks for private schools, which could lead to increases in school fees, as factors that could affect the market.<\/span><\/div>\n
Looking beyond 2024, “the prime market did not experience large price increases during the pandemic years, like other parts of the market, so there is potential for steady growth in the coming years,\u201d Bill said. It\u2019s also clear that London remains a choice spot among wealthy international buyers, and that\u2019s unlikely to change anytime soon. \u201cIt\u2019s easy to forget that London ticks lots of boxes for overseas buyers such as the language and its schools, but they are the factors that keep the market ticking along,\u201d Bill added.<\/span><\/div>\n

DUBAI\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"Arcadia<\/span><\/p>\n

The luxury housing boom Dubai witnessed in 2023 is on track to continue over the next 12 months. <\/span><\/div>\n
This year saw the United Arab Emirates city \u201cemerging as the world\u2019s most important real estate market for high-value transactions,\u201d said Oriol Font, CEO of Luxhabitat. <\/span><\/div>\n
\u201cWe expect to see a further consolidation of Dubai as one of the more relevant destinations for high-net-worth individuals,\u201d Font said. \u201cIn the past, most of the residents were moving to Dubai for work or tax reasons. Nowadays, those are not the only reasons as a significant and growing number of high-net-worth individuals move to Dubai because of the lifestyle the city offers, which doesn\u2019t have any comparable, especially in the region\u201d.<\/span><\/div>\n
In the last couple of years, Dubai\u2019s property price growth has made headlines, \u201cwhich is an outstanding performance that we don\u2019t expect to last for much longer,\u201d he added. \u201cMost probably either in 2024 or 2025 the market will see those growth levels to moderate or even a certain price correction in certain areas or product types”.<\/span><\/div>\n
Despite a year and half of almost continuous interest rate rises, Sydney\u2019s dwelling values actually increased 10.2% in the 12 months to Dec, 1. <\/span><\/div>\n
Luxury real estate led the charge throughout 2023, however data from CoreLogic now shows affluent buyers are pulling in the reins. Slower growth conditions across Sydney\u2019s upper quartile\u2014the top 25% of housing values, around A$2.1 million (US$1.44 million) and higher\u2014have recorded the lowest rate of growth on a monthly and rolling quarterly basis, according to Tim Lawless, chief economist at CoreLogic.<\/span><\/div>\n
\u201cThat upper quartile tends to lead the cycle, and we\u2019re clearly seeing that again. There was an inflection point where value growth in that sector was leading Sydney\u2019s upswing from early 2023, but it\u2019s now showing the most noticeable slowdown across both houses and units,\u201d said Lawless. \u201cSydney\u2019s upper-quartile house values rose by 4.9% quarter on quarter over the three months ending in July. That\u2019s now slowed to 3%,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/div>\n
Traditionally, the summer quarter, which Australia entered on Dec. 1, sets the scene for the calendar year ahead, signaling a slower start to 2024 than 2023 for luxury homes.<\/span><\/div>\n
\u201cI wouldn\u2019t be surprised if there\u2019s a further diminishment in growth, maybe even moving to some level of decline in price. What happens in the market next year will be dependent on interest rates,\u201d Lawless explained. The central bank had raised the benchmark rate to 4.35% as of mid-December, which many regard as the peak.<\/span><\/div>\n
\u201cPotentially, we\u2019ll see interest rates coming down through the second half of 2024. Although the timing of that is still highly uncertain because it\u2019ll depend on inflation numbers,\u201d Lawless said.<\/span><\/div>\n
As high-end housing values slow\u2014or potentially fall\u2014in Sydney, Lawless suggested a temporary window could be about to open.<\/span><\/div>\n
\u201cThere\u2019ll probably be more opportunities if luxury values dip below this most recent flurry of growth,\u201d he said. \u201cIf I\u2019m right about rates coming down late next year, that might mean the best opportunities to buy would be in the first half of the year to take advantage of less competition\u201d.<\/span><\/div>\n
Source<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Myriad uncertainties, from mortgage rates to national elections and the stock market, will have more impact than in typical years in major metropolitan housing markets from San Francisco to Sydney in 2024.\u00a0 In London, \u201cthe biggest risks to the prime market are likely to be political rather than economic,\u201d said Tom Bill, head of U.K….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":5414,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[93,94],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-real-estate-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5411\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arcadiaconsult.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}